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Analytics and Modeling

May 23, 2014
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Ever since the outset of the election campaigns, the biggest democracy in the world has been looking for change. The trend was very clear in this year’s government. They wanted one man to lead the nation and make it a better place as promised. This year a huge percentage of the voters being youth wanted a dynamic and modern leader who gave hope of development and opportunity. India and the world look forward to the changes this new government can bring about in the nation and how it will affect its relations with the world.

On the very day of the election results the Sensex index rose to a record 25375.63, before falling back to face up 1.29% at 24121.74. The individuals of India have got a hope from the new government. The trends are bent to vary currently with a brand new powerful government absorbing the political state of affairs. We’ve compiled some attention-grabbing forecast changes and trend collapses which will happen this decade for India.

1. The Economy – The backbone of the nation

India has been more increasingly as an engine that may drive international growth in future. This is often reason enough to look at the economic prospects of India over the present decade. Our forecasts indicate that the chance of Asian nation sustaining 9.0% growth throughout the present decade is extremely high. According to our estimate, in the journey during the present decade as India traverses a high growth path, it'd eventually surpass Japan’s GDP level (as in 2010 at current US$) by FY2020. The concomitant rise in financial gain levels including increasing young working-age population can work towards increasing the share of discretionary spending in private final consumption expenditure and raising the savings rate. Growth of urban population is one in all the foremost necessary demographic shifts that we'll witness throughout the present decade.

Expected GDP growth of India by 2020
GDP Growth Rate for India
India's GDP compared to other countries like China, USA etc
GDP Increase in comparison with other countries

The current decade will be made with profound changes, which will present us with both challenges and opportunities. Our forecasts for this decade will facilitate us to arrange for future challenges and seize opportunities. Economic progress throughout this decade can bring with it challenges in terms of meeting rising energy wants in ways in which are efficient and environmentally compatible. Pressures on natural resources can exacerbate throughout this decade. Accrued demand and environmental issues can build an innovation imperative. The answer can to exist technology that meets rising energy demand that are efficient, property and environmentally compatible and reduces reliance on natural resources.

2. Macro Statistics about Indian Economy

A million dollars! , In grand, a macro-economic term, that doesn’t sound sort of a seminal shift, for GDP can go up from Rs 600000 Crores nowadays (about $1.3 trillion) to 2.2 times that figure a decade from currently. India’s GDP in 2020, at slightly below $3 trillion at today’s costs and exchange rates, would be but common fraction of what China has already achieved in 2009: $4.6 trillion. In international rankings, too, there can be comparatively little shifts — Asian nations will became larger than Russia and Brazil (two of the BRICS's economies), and may additionally overtake North American and European countries. It'll so become the eighth largest economy within the world, as against the twelfth largest today.

GDP investment macro
GDP investment macro

These are substantial changes, however basically progressive, and so none of them earthshaking. India’s share of world GDP, as an example, will be solely slightly higher than four per cent even in 2020 — well wanting the twenty four per cent that prevailed over 3 centuries past, and not far better than the 3.8 per cent of 1952! The a lot of exciting story, therefore, can exist the size change which will become evident in specific markets. we've got seen over the past decade however this works — the quantity of recent mobile connections has gone from 0.1 million per month in 1999 to ten million currently, a rise of a a hundred times. And total mobile connections have gone from but ten million to over five hundred million.

Infrastructure will be both a cause and a consequence of economic process throughout this decade. The rising incomes and urbanisation can boost demand for infrastructure investment in sectors like electricity, roads; telecom et al. huge infrastructure investment by the govt along side magnified investment activity by the personal sector can accelerate overall investment throughout this decade. Government of India’s (Go’s) thrust on infrastructure development in recent years and also the structural policy changes is predicted to supply the third “big push” to the Indian economy, facultative it to attain comprehensive growth throughout this decade (Current decade refers to FY11-FY20).

3. Age Demographics in India

Every third person in an Indian city today is a youth. In about seven years, the median individual in India will be 29 years, very likely a city-dweller, making it the youngest country in the world. India is set to experience a dynamic transformation as the population burden of the past turns into a demographic dividend, but the benefits will be tempered with social and spatial inequalities.

These are some of the findings of the ‘State of the Urban Youth, India 2012: Employment, Livelihoods, Skills,’ a report published by IRIS Knowledge Foundation in collaboration with UN-HABITAT.

A closer analysis of the urban youth suggests that greater political participation, engagement at a policy level and urgent attention to improving their quality of life can ensure that India enjoys the benefits of this dividend.

Age demographics in India in 2020

The report traces the incredible rise — and the eventual decline — of this cohort in India. The population in the age-group of 15-34 increased from 353 million in 2001 to 430 million in 2011. Current predictions suggest a steady increase in the youth population to 464 million by 2021 and finally a decline to 458 million by 2026.
By 2020, India is set to become the world’s youngest country with 64 per cent of its population in the working age group. With the West, Japan and even China aging, this demographic potential offers India and its growing economy an unprecedented edge that economists believe could add a significant 2 per cent to the GDP growth rate.

We've now talked about 3 of the 6 points. Next up, we'll be discussing about Education, Healthcare and other areas in Analytics and Modeling: Part-II


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